Think tank: 2019 to be 'watershed' year for peace on Korean Peninsula

The year of 2019 will likely mark a "watershed" year for ongoing diplomacy for denuclearization and lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula, according to a South Korean state think tank. Joint Press Corps

A South Korean state think tank anticipated Thursday that 2019 will likely mark a "watershed" year for ongoing diplomacy for denuclearization and lasting peace on the peninsula, saying efforts by relevant countries will intensify, whether fruitful or not.

The Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), affiliated with the foreign ministry, predicted continued talks between Washington and Pyongyang in the new year to move beyond their decadeslong enmity, though a dramatic turnaround in their relations may not be easy.

The institute published its annual forecast for world politics in the new year, touching on peace efforts on the peninsula, inter-Korean exchanges, geopolitics in Northeast Asia, internal politics in Pyongyang and other issues.

"2019 will be a watershed to determine whether there will be a significant headway in efforts for denuclearization and peace on the peninsula, through progress in negotiations between the North and the U.S. and in inter-Korean relations," the institute said in the publication.

A tug of war between the U.S. and the North will continue as the former calls for additional denuclearization steps with the latter demanding "corresponding measures," such as sanctions relief and a declaration of a formal end to the 1950-53 Korean War, it said.

During the second summit between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, which is likely to occur in the first half of the year, they may take respective steps to enable a breakthrough in their stalled nuclear negotiations, but the steps could be "symbolic and entry-level" ones, the IFANS said.

"It may be difficult to prognosticate a drastic improvement in the North-U.S. ties, but the negotiation phase may continue so as to go beyond their longstanding hostile relationship and craft a new agreement," it said.

On the inter-Korean front, the think tank anticipated some delay in proceeding with the Koreas' economic cooperation projects due to an intricate web of sanctions by the U.S. and the United Nations. But it said social and cultural exchanges between them will be expanded.

Touching on the North Korean leader's key domestic tasks next year, the institute pointed to the need to strengthen public support after his focus on cementing his political standing based on his professed completion of the nuclear force and brisk diplomacy with the outside world.

In particular, Kim may need outside assistance in completing his much-trumpeted development and construction projects, which will not be possible should international sanctions persist amid a stalemate in negotiations with the U.S. (Yonhap)